The 2028 Test

The midterm elections showed voters turning against the war in Iran, against prices they cannot keep up with and against a government they see as serving its friends. The 2028 campaign begins now, and the candidates who take that verdict seriously deserve the closest attention.

No major candidate has formally declared, but the field is already forming. The Society will grade every candidate who enters on the same record-based Report Cards it uses for presidents and for every member of Congress, and it will put the following questions to each of them.

Questions for every candidate

• Will you end the war in Iran, and refuse to start wars that serve other nations' aims?
• Will you put the hemisphere first by finishing the work in Venezuela, breaking the cartels and keeping rival powers out of the Americas?
• Will you keep tariffs steady and strategic, and pair them with a real plan to rebuild shipyards, chips, steel and medicines at home?
• Will you support a ban on stock trading by members of Congress and senior officials, and keep your family's businesses away from foreign governments?
• Will you refuse money and pressure from foreign governments and their lobbies?
• Will you lower the cost of living by building housing, energy and the power grid, and require data centers to pay their own way?
• Will you secure the border lawfully and competently, and set immigration at a pace newcomers can join?

Republican prospects

JD Vance, whom many expect to seek the nomination, is the strongest national-populist voice in the party, but his record does not yet match his rhetoric. He defended the strikes on Iran and cast the tie-breaking vote for a reconciliation bill that cut Medicaid. The Society's report card gives him a C+.

Marco Rubio (C+) has been right about Venezuela and Cuba and wrong about most things farther from home. Ron DeSantis (B-) is a capable governor with a conventional free-market record. Ted Cruz (B-) is a sharp constitutionalist and a foreign policy hawk. Josh Hawley (B) comes closest to the Ten Articles of the Republicans often mentioned, though his votes still trail his speeches.

Prediction markets point to a wider Republican field. As of mid-November, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi give meaningful odds to Thomas Massie (B-), who leaves the House in January after leading opposition to the Iran war; the commentator Tucker Carlson (B-); John McEntee (B-), who ran the White House personnel office in 2020 and has never held elected office; two governors with conventional records, Glenn Youngkin (B-) and Brian Kemp (B); and Marjorie Taylor Greene (B-). Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (C+) also draws heavy interest from traders.

Democratic prospects

The midterms gave Democrats momentum without giving them a program. Josh Shapiro (B-) is a competent executive with conventional instincts abroad. Pete Buttigieg (C+) is articulate and capable, with the outlook of the professional class rather than the worker. Gavin Newsom (C) presides over the state that most needs to build and builds the least.

Ro Khanna (B-) is the Democrat whose record overlaps most with ours: an economic patriot on manufacturing and a consistent opponent of wars of choice. The Democrat who wins in 2028 may well be the one who treats last week's result as a warning about war, corruption and prices rather than as a vote of confidence in the party.

The markets read the Democratic field differently from the party's leadership. Jon Ossoff (B-), re-elected in Georgia this month, leads the betting, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (C+). Traders also back Raphael Warnock (B-), Mark Kelly (B-), Wes Moore (B-), Andy Beshear (B-), J.B. Pritzker (C+) and James Talarico (B), the newly elected senator from Texas, whose grade rests on his record in the Texas House. Andrew Yang (B-), who founded the Forward Party, is also given a strong chance of running, most likely outside the two parties.

Next steps

The Society will publish a report card for every declared candidate and update it as the record develops. Members will deliberate in the forum before the Society endorses anyone. Every candidate in either party will be judged by the same standard, which is whether that candidate puts American interests first in votes and actions as well as in speeches.